CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2020-12-07T16:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2020-12-07T16:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/16214/-1
CME Note: This CME is associated with a C7.4 flare from AR 2790 (S23W11) that peaked at 2020-12-07T16:32Z. The eruption signature of this event can be seen in SDO AIA 193/304 starting as early 2020-12-07T15:30Z. The chosen start time for this CME event is the initial time it was observed in STEREO A COR2 imagery since SOHO LASCO data was unaavailable during real-time analysis. ARRIVAL SIGNATURE: Beginning at 2020-12-10T01:29Z, DSCOVR detects magnetic field strength increases to 10 nT, solar wind speed jumps from 450 to 600 km/s, density jumps to over 20/cc, and temperatures jump to over 300,000 K. Similar signatures are seen by ACE at the same time.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2020-12-10T01:29Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2020-12-09T07:22Z (-5.3h, +7.1h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 99.0%
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:
Prediction Method: DBM(DBEMv3) Prediction Method Note: Drag-based model in ensemble mode v3 (DBEMv3-ESA/SSA application) http://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather Model & CME input parameters (CME input taken from Donki): start time: 2020-12-07 18:49 (+/-30 min) start distance: 21.5 Rsun initial speed: 1383 km/s (+/-200) halfwidth: 41 deg (+/-15) lon: 12 deg (+/-30) solar wind speed: 400 km/s (+/-50) gamma: 0.1 (+/-0.1) ------ probability of arrival: 99% CME arrival date & time: 2020-12-09 07:22 (+7.1h, -5.3h) CME arrival speed: 819 km/s (+270 km/s, -149 km/s) ------Lead Time: 41.35 hour(s)
Difference: 18.12 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mateja Dumbovic (Hvar Obs) on 2020-12-08T08:08Z
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